Saudi retail and F&B outlook 2026-2031: the numbers that matter for expansion
By Chadi Kouatly, Managing Partner, Foretus. Published September 2026. Figures updated each January and July.
Saudi Arabia's foodservice market is forecast to grow from USD 32.6 billion in 2026 to USD 48 billion by 2031 (about 8% a year), and its retail market from USD 294 billion in 2025 to USD 412 billion by 2034 (about 3.8% a year). Cafes, chained outlets, delivery and experiential retail are the fastest-growing segments. Here is what the data says and what it means for expansion plans.
Foodservice
Market size: about USD 30.1 billion (2025), USD 32.6 billion (2026), USD 48.1 billion (2031 forecast); CAGR 8.1% (Mordor Intelligence).
Full-service restaurants: about 54% of the market.
Cafes and bars: fastest-growing segment, near 12% CAGR.
Chained outlets: growing at about 11% a year versus independents' 58% share today.
Delivery: growing at about 11% a year; dine-in still about 76% of spend.
Leisure and destination venues: growing fastest by location.
Retail
Market size: about USD 294 billion (2025), USD 412 billion (2034 forecast); CAGR 3.8% (IMARC).
Over 60% of the population under 35; consumer spending growing about 6% a year.
E-commerce expected to approach half of retail by 2030; Saudi e-commerce grew 28% to SAR 157 billion in 2023.
Riyadh retail stock rising 28% to 4.6 million square metres; regional-mall rents about SAR 2,725 per square metre; occupancy about 90% (Knight Frank).
Implications for expansion plans
Cafe and premium-casual concepts have the strongest tailwind
Growth in cafes and destination venues favours concept-led brands with strong design and social-media presence.
Chains are winning share
The organised sector's growth advantage rewards brands that can execute multi-unit roll-outs with consistent quality, which in turn rewards investment in training, supply chain and area management.
Delivery must be designed in
Kitchen layouts, menus and packaging need to work for delivery from day one; the channel is too large to bolt on later.
Real estate is a strategic choice, not a procurement task
With supply arriving in new formats and the best units allocated early, site strategy determines margin.
Omnichannel retail is the baseline
Fashion and lifestyle brands need integrated stock, pricing and loyalty across stores and online to compete with marketplaces.
Frequently asked questions
Is the Saudi F&B market saturated?
No; growth is 8% a year and organised chains are still taking share. Individual segments and malls can be crowded, which is why site and concept selection matter.
How big is Saudi retail compared with the UAE?
Saudi Arabia is the largest consumer market in the GCC by population and total retail sales; the UAE is smaller but with higher per-capita spending and tourism.
Sources: Mordor Intelligence, Saudi Arabia Foodservice Market 2026-2031; IMARC, Saudi Arabia Retail Market 2025-2034; Knight Frank, Saudi Arabia Retail Market Review; Ministry of Commerce e-commerce statistics.
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